Understanding Projected Visits in Ads Manager

What is Projected Visits?

The Projected Visits metric projects real attributed campaign visits using a proprietary model built from real-world data and anchored in our observed visits data. It gives our clients a more accurate view of their campaign performance.

How is Projected Visits Calculated?

For each campaign, we create a panel made up of impressed devices (devices served an ad) with frequent location signals. The panel's visitation behavior is then applied to the total impressed devices to calculate the Projected Visits driven by GroundTruth.

Selection of Users in the Panel

To be included in the panel, users must:

  • Have frequent location signals (i.e., users seen most often throughout the day).
  • Accurately reflect the characteristics of the larger population.

GroundTruth's model is based on Observed Visits data, including first-party data from WeatherBug - our Owned and Operated App.

Projected Visits vs. Observed Visits

Observed Visits:

  • Deterministic metric measuring physical store visits after ad exposure.
  • Utilizes Blueprint technology.
  • Direct measure of store visits.

Projected Visits:

  • Panel-based probabilistic metric estimating store visits.
  • Uses a panel of impressed users to create a predictive model.
  • Provides an estimate to close the gap between measurement capabilities and campaign performance.

Projected Visits in Ads Manager

To qualify for Projected Visits, a campaign usually requires a minimum of 40 Observed Visits and 350k impressions. Once the threshold has been met, the metric is available at the campaign and ad group levels, updated daily, and is cumulative (i.e., it cannot be broken down by day/week/month).


Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why do I not see Projected Visits in Ads Manager?

A: The Projected Visits metric is visible in the campaign summary header only when the campaign has met the minimum threshold. In the summary table, it will display 'Projected Visits: --' until the threshold is met.

Q: What are the limitations in the Observed Visits metric in measuring campaign performance?

A: The Observed Visits metric doesn't provide an entirely accurate reflection of a campaign's visitation. This is due to the limitation of not being able to observe every user all the time. There are instances where a user sees an ad, visits the drive-to location, but we may not capture that visit. On the other hand, Projected Visits offer a measurement of expected campaign performance, making it a more comparable metric to other partners in the space. Projected Visits, in many ways, serves as a more accurate representation of campaign performance and the visits GroundTruth is likely to have actually driven.

Q: Does the panel evolve as the campaign progresses?

A: Yes, panels are refreshed daily to represent real-world behavior.

Q: Can Projected Visits metrics be broken down month over month?

A: No, the metric is cumulative, representing the entire campaign duration. It will consider visits that happened before the threshold was met and the metric appeared.

Q: Why is there a discrepancy between Projected Visits and Observed Visits (i.e. Projected Visits is less than Observed Visits)?
A: The discrepancy arises from the nature of Projected Visits being a rounded projection, whereas Observed Visits is a deterministic metric with a 1:1 correspondence. In rare instances, the rounded nature of Projected Visits may result in a lower figure compared to the precise Observed Visits. This discrepancy is expected to resolve naturally as the campaign progresses and completes its flight.


For further details, reach out to selfservehelp@groundtruth.com.

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